Science, not superstitions
Weather predictions aren't what they used to be.
The timing of migration and hibernation, the “Old Farmer's Almanac,” the number of acorns on the ground and the width of caterpillar stripes are losing favor as forecasts of a mild or severe winter.
“This is caterpillar season,” said Stephanie Taylor, environmental education specialist at Moraine State Park, Muddy Creek Township. “Wooly bear caterpillars, the more brown they are, the worse the winter will be.”
“I caught three today and they were all different,” she said. “It's fun but I don't buy into it.”
Taylor has heard people say more acorns predict a worse winter.
“Red oaks produce every other year. White oaks produce every year. That's why some years there are more than others,” Taylor said.
“Early bird migration is another one that I hear about, ”said Miranda Crotsley, program coordinator at Jennings Environmental Education Center, 2951 Prospect Road, Slippery Rock.
“It's really difficult to predict. Definitely looking for signs of approaching winter can determine when we should be preparing for winter. Whether it's chopping wood or getting our clothes out of storage, we can use the signs in nature to help us determine when we should do those things,” Crotsley said.
“It's always good to be prepared for just about anything, just like the wildlife are,” she said.
According to Regis Senko, information and education supervisor for the northwest region of the Pennsylvania Game Commission, animal behavior is not reliable for predicting winter weather.
“Individuals will say cold weather will bring on the rut of the deer, but in reality that's controlled by the amount of daylight,” Senko said.
He said the timing of bear hibernation probably is based more on the availability of food.
“They will tend to go into hibernation if they don't have good food conditions. It doesn't have to do with weather,” Senko said.People tell Bob Howland, manager of streets and fleet for Cranberry Township, weather omens from the “Old Farmer's Almanac.”“I've never been a reader of that or believer in that,” said Howland. “You depend more on the current forecast anywhere from seven to 10 days out. It gives you a truer picture.”Tom Shuler, working foreman for Butler's streets department, doesn't follow the “Old Farmer's Almanac” either, and he does not plan to make any predictions about the coming winter.“I'll let you know in the spring,” Shuler said.Ralph Graham of Center Township had similar feelings when he was the streets superintendent for Butler. “I kept a real good look at the forecast five days at a time. As far as predicting the winter, I didn't even want to talk about it,” he said.But, it's inevitable: winter is on its way. While many worry about road conditions, some don't even have to get out of bed to feel its effects.For those who have arthritis, when the cold comes, gradually their joint pain could get worse.According to Dr. Devashis Mitra, who is a rheumatologist at Butler Memorial Hospital, there is science behind the relationship of joint pain and the weather. The synovial fluid, the liquid around the joint, thickens.“It has been recognized for years. It is a phenomenon that is described in the textbooks,” he said.“It is mainly true in patients that already have underlying arthritis. The synovial fluid is already mildly inflamed,” Mitra said. “That is what causes the aches and pain and stiffness to get worse.”He said people who have arthritis have different levels of sensitivity to the cold and different ways to deal with it.“A lot of people go to Florida. That's one of the reasons they do it,” Mitra said.Can the aches and pains predict the weather? He said that's taking it too far.“The movement of energy on the planet, that's what the weather is about,” said Julie Snow, associate professor of geography, geology and environment at Slippery Rock University. She is an atmospheric chemist and teaches climate change and meteorology.“It's physics and chemistry that it basically comes down to,” Snow said.“We can make general statements about what is going to happen seasonally with temperature and precipitation,” she said. “We cannot really make an accurate weather forecast more than 10 days out.”She said short-term climate shifts, such as El Niño and La Niña, can affect temperature and precipitation.“Those can then alter the flow of the atmosphere over North America, and that would result in temperature or precipitation changes here,” Snow said.“I pay attention to those things — the things that are based on the solid science — to look at what our winter is going to be like,” she said.Snow said the ability to predict the weather changed significantly in the 1990s after hundreds of buoys were placed along the equator.“On these buoys, we measure atmospheric pressure, atmospheric wind speed and direction, ocean temperature, ocean current speed and direction,” Snow said. “As soon as we see a change, we pay attention.”“We've moved from understanding to forecasting,” she said. “Predicting it can save people money and save people's lives.”“Always be prepared for the worst and hope for the best,” Howland said.To learn more about the weather, visit the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service. The course taught by Snow at Slippery Rock University, Introduction to Meteorology, doesn't have prerequisites and is offered at the university and online.
