The Rendell administration's claims about a strong state economy might be overly optimistic and should be re-evaluated.

While Pennsylvania's unemployment rate dropped to 3.8 percent in March 2007, some economists believe the low figure might not represent the true picture. They believe a shrinking state labor force might be skewing the employment situation that really exists.

That possibility should not be blown off as insignificant. State residents deserve a true picture of how their economy, and the state government that influences it, are performing.

According to state figures, between February and March, the number of working Pennsylvanians fell by 34,000. Nearly 100,000 state residents dropped out of the labor force; the labor force includes people either working or actively looking for work.

The lower labor force number could be due to retirements, people moving away, or simply people who have stopped looking for work.

Regardless, a dwindling labor force could help produce an optimistic unemployment number that is not a true reflection of how the state really is faring.

A statistic that ought to be of serious concern is that in the past three years, Pennsylvania has added just 125,000 new jobs. That is a growth rate of less than 1 percent per year, which is less than half the pace of the national average.

The Keystone State ranks 45th among the states in job creation during that period.

Mark Zandi, chief economist for Economy.com in West Chester, believes "someone made an error on their spreadsheet" in terms of what Gov. Ed Rendell and members of his administration are saying regarding the strength of the commonwealth's economy.

"The job market is good, but it's not the best in 30 years," he said.

Pennsylvania's unemployment peaked at 12.9 percent in 1983.

Adding to the discussion about the issue, Bill Dunkelberg, an economics professor at Temple University, said, "It's nice to have a low unemployment rate, but not if you have fewer jobs or people are leaving the state.

He's correct.

When the administration can provide conclusive evidence that unemployment is continuing to decline amid more healthy job-creation numbers, state residents can share Rendell's optimism.

Until then, residents should be skeptical — without a clear understanding of the larger jobs picture. They should not allow themselves to be misled by selective numbers.

There could be seasonal implications to the smaller labor force, as one Labor and Industry Department official speculated. But perhaps there's more to it than that. Job seekers leaving the state will produce lower unemployment figures, but that is not a positive economic situation.

Rendell needs to determine the facts behind the numbers, and explain the whole jobs story to the people of Pennsylvania.