For Pennsylvania residents, there is no comfort in the disclosure that the commonwealth could be facing a $1 billion deficit by the end of the fiscal year on June 30.

But with most legislative seats up for election this year, and a new governor to be elected, it is unlikely that state residents will be facing an income tax increase — unless, of course, the state's financial situation ends up much worse than predicted.

It's not too early for state voters to begin paying attention to the rhetoric that will continue to escalate about the causes of the currrent troublesome budget situation.

Of course, a big part of the blame must be placed on the current national economic picture, and that is what the Rendell administration has been emphasizing.

Indeed, most other states are experiencing serious financial difficulties also.

But what Pennsylvania voters should try to understand as budget debate heats up is what could have been done — but wasn't — to soften the financial hardship that the commonwealth has been — and is — facing.

It's reasonable to believe that Republicans, as well as Democrats, deserve blame.

One possible hope for the commonwealth is that April tax collections will be much more vibrant as the final rush toward the April 15 tax-filing deadline proceeds. According to state officials, March's revenue collections were unusually depressed because inclement weather in February hurt retail sales, and it was pointed out that electric utilities submitted lower-than-expected annual gross receipts collections. Perhaps some of that will be resolved as this month continues.

It was state Sen. Jake Corman, R-Centre, who last Wednesday warned that, all considered, a $1 billion budget deficit figure might lie ahead for lawmakers and Gov. Ed Rendell to address. Corman, who is chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, said groups that depend on the state government for money should not look to a 2010-11 budget package approved by the Democratic-led House of Representatives last month as a reliable guide regarding what they might receive in the next fiscal year.

The budget situation now is being made more difficult and challenging by the federal government's rejection of Interstate 80 tolling. Tolls were projected to produce $450 million-plus per year for transportation projects.

Although this is an election year and a time when lawmakers and the governor might be more inclined to work together to accomplish something as important as the state budget, there's no guarantee the usual partisanship won't again cause the budget deadline to be missed.

However the political scenario plays out, the prospects for an income tax hike remain remote, even if the deficit edges over $1 billion.

The best advice for Rendell is to find ways to cut spending now, rather than rely on his prediction of a 3.2 percent growth in next fiscal year's tax receipts.

The taxpayers have the benefit of legislative and gubernatorial elections this year to keep the prospects for tax increases low. But 2010 will give way to 2011, and it's impossible to project what Fiscal Year 2011-12 might bring.

If there ever was a time for state residents to pay atttention to what's going on in Harrisburg, the coming months will be that time.

Like the other states, Pennsylvania cannot fall into debt like the federal government. At the end of their annual budget exercises, states' budgets must balance.

With prospects for a $1 billion deficit, it's clear that many people and entities — even without an income tax increase — aren't going to be happy about many of the tough but necessary budget decisions that lie ahead.