Wheat oversupply leaves farmers seeking options
WICHITA, Kan. — This year might not be a good one for wheat farm incomes. A global glut in wheat has driven down prices significantly from their heyday in 2008.
Australia and Russia have seen their harvests rise by a third in the past two years, creating the biggest worldwide glut of wheat since 2002. The wheat supply is at a 22-year high in the U.S.
Analysts recently surveyed by Bloomberg expect an 8.6 percent price drop by July. That is echoed by local market advisers.
It takes about a year for the market to work through a surplus, said Chad Hart, an agricultural economist at Iowa State University.
Lower prices, greater supply from foreign competitors and lower acreage at home likely will mean lower incomes.
Wheat is the best crop for some areas, said Scott Van Allen, a farmer in northern Sumner County, Kan. That leaves many farmers with fewer choices when prices drop.
"You plant wheat and hope for the best," said Van Allen, who has planted 2,500 acres of his 2,800 acres in wheat.
But farmers have a range of options to reduce the impact of the price fluctuations.
They might sell all or part of the crop in advance. But since the price of wheat isn't above the level of government price supports, there's little incentive at the moment.
They can hedge it with futures or options or sell some or all of it at harvest. Or they can store some or all of it and wait for higher prices.