Why global economy outlook has brightened
WASHINGTON — From the United States to Asia to Europe, a global economy that many had feared was faltering appears poised for a resurgence on the strength of cheap oil and falling interest rates.
That’s the strikingly upbeat view of economists surveyed by The Associated Press, who no longer see Europe’s financial crisis, the U.S. housing market or congressional gridlock as the threats they appeared to be last year.
“The U.S. is doing well, you’re getting a lot of good news in Europe,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight. “The global economy is gaining traction.”
U.S. consumers are feeling flusher, thanks to lower gas prices, a burst of hiring and long-awaited if still-modest pay raises for many. Their spending is expected to boost growth this year in the United States and overseas.
The brighter outlook marks a turnaround from last fall, when a looming war in Ukraine, the rise of the Islamic State terror group and a reluctance by the European Central Bank to expand its stimulus efforts led analysts to downgrade their view of the global economy.
Weaker growth in China has also hurt exporting countries from Latin America to Australia that had long benefited from China’s appetite for farm products, copper, iron ore and other commodities. China’s growth decelerated last year to its slowest pace in a quarter-century.
Still, most economists expect China to avoid a further slowdown. Its central bank cut rates last weekend for the second time in three months to try to accelerate growth.
The AP surveyed nearly three dozen corporate, Wall Street and academic economists from Feb. 19 to 25. A majority said they thought struggling economies in Europe and Japan would benefit from lower-priced energy and ultra-low loan rates engineered by central banks.
Behravesh predicted that freer-spending U.S. consumers would provide help. He noted that their collective spending represents a bigger force than any other nation’s economy.
American consumers have benefited from the 1 million-plus jobs U.S. employers have added in the past three months. More than 3.2 million more Americans are earning paychecks than were 12 months ago.
In January, U.S. gas prices reached a five-year low, though they’ve since rebounded. A gallon cost an average of $2.44 nationwide Tuesday, more than a dollar cheaper than it did 12 months ago, according to AAA.