On Thursday, Butler Health System reported that the hospital had 23 COVID-19-positive inpatients with three in the intensive care unit with severe symptoms. On Jan. 14, one month prior, the system reported that the hospital had 67 COVID-19-positive inpatients, and seven were in the ICU with severe symptoms.

Dr. David Rottinghaus, Butler Health System's chief medical officer and emergency medical physician, said the months-long spike in COVID-19 cases seen from October through January was the result of the emergence of more-contagious variants, an increase in group gatherings and people simultaneously taking fewer mitigation measures.

Rottinghaus said that although case counts were up throughout the spike, hospitalizations were lower than they were at the start of the pandemic. To him, this indicates that the coronavirus could be approaching endemic status.

“The prevailing belief is it's going to be an endemic; there will always be a degree of it circulating in the population,” Rottinghaus said. “Unlike polio or smallpox, its mutation ability renders it unlikely and impossible to eradicate with vaccination. But hopefully, herd immunity through vaccination and natural infection help make it like another typical cold.”

Potential exists for mutations

There is still potential for the COVID-19 virus to further mutate, like it did with the delta and then the omicron variants. Rottinghaus said those mutations were less deadly than the original virus, but more contagious.

Other variants would likely continue this trend of being more contagious than debilitating, and with the vaccination rate relatively high around Pennsylvania, the effects will continue to be mild.

“The demands of life inevitably call for some degree of exposure,” Rottinghaus said. “We can all mitigate, but at some time you are going to be exposed.”

In addition to the progression and availability of COVID-19 vaccines, Rottinghaus said health care providers have learned more about how to treat and relieve COVID-19 symptoms as the pandemic has droned on. Although unvaccinated people still are more likely to experience severe COVID-19 symptoms, Rottinghaus said hospitals have more treatments now than just putting people on ventilators.

Rottinghaus also said he wouldn’t be surprised if the region saw another wave of COVID-19 infections in the future. However, case counts and infection rates may become less reported as the availability of home COVID-19 tests becomes more widespread and severity of illness falls.

Senior community cases falling

Beth Herold, director of the Butler County Area Agency on Aging, said Tuesday that the senior community also has seen case numbers fall in recent months.

She also chalked up the drop in cases to the lack of activity around this time.

“We never really look at January, February and March much anymore just because weather always plays a part of it,” Herold said. “We’ll start looking again in April and May.”

While the COVID-19 infection rate is falling and illness is becoming less severe, Rottinghaus said sickness still can spread in the same way that it always has — when someone is in close proximity to someone carrying the virus.

“Any time you have a respiratory virus, gathering is going to lead to increased spread,” he said. “Fingers crossed this trend continues and this virus remains relatively tame.”