Trump’s Butler rally reinforces support, could be a signal for undecided voters
As former President Donald Trump continues his campaign trail, his appearance at the Butler Farm Show Saturday, July 13 — just two days before the Republican National Convention — solidifies support from voters in a predominantly Republican county, and could be a chance to rally undecided voters.
Trump’s visit to the Butler Farm Show grounds, conveniently located near an airport, will take place just an hour away from Pittsburgh, where voter demographics shift: About 56% of voters are registered Democrats in Allegheny County. The flip side is true in semi-rural Butler County, where 57% of voters are registered Republicans, according to state statistics.
“What is interesting to me is that this is a very different style of campaigning from what Trump did in the last two elections,” said Kristin Kanthak, associate professor of political science at the University of Pittsburgh. “Most of his campaigning was done in large rallies with his supporters. But a trip to the Farm Show is more typical of what we see from candidates.
“It says to me that the Trump campaign is pivoting to a more traditional campaign style, focusing on increasing his support among undecided voters, rather than centering his attention on voters who are already strongly in his camp. He’s going to where voters are, rather than expecting voters to come to him, as he had done previously.”
The county’s support for Trump had dwindled slightly since 2016 in the race against Hillary Rodham Clinton, when he got 66.37% of the vote — but only by a margin. In the 2020 presidential election, Trump got 65.63% of votes in Butler County, according to official election results.
“This tells me the Trump camp is paying close attention to the vote totals from 2020, which is a strong pivot from claiming that the vote count was somehow rigged,” Kanthak said. “This is a campaign that believes those numbers. Trump won Butler County easily both times, but he netted 2,000 fewer votes from Butler County in 2020 than he did in 2016.
“So I think that’s why Trump picked it.”
James Hulings, chairman of the Butler County Republican Committee, said that by visiting Butler County, he believes Trump is appealing to the working class.
“He loves the working people,” Hulings said.
“We’re conservative, God-fearing people,” Hulings said. “We love our country. There’s a lot of patriots here.”
Undecided voters could also be “the pivot” this presidential election, he said.
“We just need to get undecided people off the fence,” Hulings said.
U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly, R-16th, said he was “incredibly excited” to welcome the former president back to Butler.
“This election is a tale of two presidents and two very different visions for our great nation,” Kelly stated. “Butler County is Trump Country.”
“Butler county is a rural county,” Hulings said. “It’s great (Trump’s) coming out to see us when he could’ve went to some big city. He’s been here before, and he was very well received. I think he came back because of the way he was treated the first time.”
Trump previously visited the county in 2020, when he spoke at the Pittsburgh-Butler Regional Airport.
Melanie Brewer, Kelly’s campaign manager, answered that Butler County may have been chosen because of its proximity to Pittsburgh and navigable from other counties in Northwestern Pennsylvania such as Crawford, Venango and Mercer.
Butler County’s steel and manufacturing industries could also be a focus of the event, she said.
Catherine Lalonde, chairwoman of the Butler Democratic Committee, said Trump’s visit will not change Democrats’ strategy moving forward this presidential election.
With Trump coming into town, Lalonde’s main concerns hinge on taxpayers footing the bill for security of an ex-president.
“This is not taking attention from what we (Butler Democrats) have to do,” she said.
“It’s not surprising he came here,” Lalonde said. “He was here before — he seems to gather a lot of support here.”
“It’s a very Republican area, and close to Pittsburgh,” she said. “He knows he’s got supporters here around the area ... Pittsburgh doesn’t have as big an audience in term of support.”
Butler County has also seen significant growth, Lalonde said, which could attract political candidates.
In 2023, Butler County was one of only two counties in Western Pennsylvania to gain population, according to U.S. Census data.
When asked whether the rally could be a signal for swing voters, she answered that it would be difficult to measure the impact of Trump’s visit in that way.
“You can’t tell by a person’s registration how they’ll vote,” she said.
The Democratic vote has decreased slightly in the county since Barack Obama’s bid for office in 2008, when the two-term president successfully ran against John McCain and received 35.68% of the votes.
“Butler is a county that is firmly in (Trump’s) camp, but he also needs to improve his performance there if he wants to win the state,” Kanthak stated. “So he’ll get a friendly audience there, but it is also a place where the numbers are telling him he needs to improve his performance if he wants to win the commonwealth. Also, Western Pennsylvania is very vote-rich for Trump, so he’s right to pay attention to it.”
“It gets lost in the urban-rural divide narrative, but the single Pennsylvania county that gave Trump the most votes in both 2016 and 2020 was Allegheny (County),” Kanthak stated. “It is also a Democratic stronghold, so he’d be less likely to get a friendly audience there. But I think the Butler County appearance is a smart way for the Trump campaign to court voters from Western Pennsylvania in general.”
Trump’s rally coincides with First Lady Jill Biden’s visit to Pittsburgh Saturday. Jill Biden will speak at an Italian Sons and Daughters of America dinner at 5 p.m., marking her third visit to Pittsburgh this summer.
