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American Heart Association predictions for cardiovascular disease

As a new study indicates, cardiovascular disease is on the rise, but an Allegheny Health Network doctor says Butler County residents can take steps to reduce the risks of cardiovascular disease.

According to research by the American Heart Association, cardiovascular disease, excluding hypertension, impacted 11.3% of Americans in 2020 and is on track to increase to 15% by 2050.

Of that research, Dr. Drew Oehler, an AHN cardiologist, said “I would counsel people to focus on different statistics in the paper, such as the total cardiovascular disease excluding hypertension,” he said.

Cardiovascular disease refers to and encompasses a variety of conditions, including coronary heart disease (including heart attack), heart failure, vascular disease, and congenital heart defects.

High blood pressure was predicted separately from all cardiovascular disease.

Stroke prevalence is expected to increase from 10 million to 20 million adults by 2050 as well, according to the American Heart Association report.

The same report predicts risk factors for cardiovascular disease, such as obesity and high blood pressure, are expected to rise significantly.

According to the American Heart Association, obesity is projected to increase from 43.1% to 60.6% in 2050, which will affect more than 180 million people. Diabetes is expected to increase by 10.5%, which will affect more than 80 million people by 2050.

Obesity rates in children ages 2 to 12 are expected to grow from 20.6% in 2020 to 33.0% in 2050, a 12.4% rise that will impact 26 million children with the highest obesity rates in children ages 2 to 5 and 12 to 19 years, according to the American Heart Association’s report. High blood pressure also is estimated to increase from 52.1%, or 128 million adults, in 2020 to 61.0%, or184 million adults, in 2050.

Racial and ethnic disparities also were present in the report’s findings.

Cardiovascular disease and its risk factors were higher in racially and ethically diverse populations. Reasons for this include demographic shifts, as Asian and Hispanic populations are expected to increase by 50% by 2060. Systemic racism, socioeconomic factors and access to care, however, were attributed to the inequities seen in risk factors and CVD diagnoses, the American Heart Association said.

Oehler said Butler County residents can take steps to reduce the risks of cardiovascular disease.

He highlighted eight key factors for cardiovascular disease, four medical and four behavioral. The four medical risk factors include hypertension (or high blood pressure), high cholesterol, obesity, and diabetes. The four behavioral risk factors are smoking, inadequate sleep, unhealthy diet, and sedentary physical activity.

“While it’s important to understand the prevalence of cardiovascular disease is going up, there are other medical risk factors and behaviors that also are changing in behavior that we can try to modify to adjust the trajectory of the disease so it becomes less common,” he said.

Certain risk factors are becoming more common, likely driven by the increasing prevalence of obesity. Hypertension and diabetes are conditions that result from a previous condition or injury.

Oehler said from his experience, the main thing talked about with patients who have risk factors for cardiovascular disease is weight loss. He noted he often sees hypertension and diabetes are better controlled with weight loss. These diseases do not occur in isolation. Although high cholesterol, diabetes, obesity, and hypertension each affect the body in their own ways, they are related and occur together.

Prevention is the greatest way to address cardiovascular disease. Fifty percent of cardiovascular disease when coronary heart disease becomes a problem presents itself in a major heart attack, which can be deadly.

“If you have questions about this data, it is something you should talk to your physician about,” Oehler said.

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