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Harris now ahead of Trump in Pa. and 2 other battleground states, according to new NYT/Siena polls

A handmade sign for Vice President Kamala Harris appears on a lawn, Sunday, July 21, 2024, in Washington. She’s already broken barriers, and now Harris could soon become the first Black woman to head a major party's presidential ticket after President Joe Biden’s ended his reelection bid. The 59-year-old Harris was endorsed by Biden on Sunday, after he stepped aside amid widespread concerns about the viability of his candidacy. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

PHILADELPHIA — In the waning days of an extraordinary political summer, Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead of former president Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and two other critical battleground states that previously seemed to be slipping out of reach for Democrats, according to new surveys of likely voters by the New York Times and Siena College.

The findings suggest that the presidential race remains tight, and also that the dynamics of a contest many voters saw as stale and lifeless have been fundamentally altered with less than 100 days to go.

Harris leads Trump by four percentage points, 50% to 46%, among likely voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, according to the new polls. The surveys were conducted among a representative sample of registered voters in the three states from Aug. 5 to 9. The margin of error is between 4 and 4.5 percentage points.

The findings capture an election still in flux: Harris announced that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz would be her running mate a day into the polling, on Aug. 6.

Still, the results are significant because nearly a year of polls showed a dead heat between Trump and Biden, with Trump gaining ground in recent months. The new polls reflect increased enthusiasm across both parties in a previously weary electorate: In May, 58% of voters said they were satisfied with the presidential candidates they had to choose from. In August, that percentage jumped by 15 points.

Among likely voters in Pennsylvania, Harris leads Trump 50-46, with voters naming the economy, abortion and immigration as the top three issues motivating them to vote. A majority of those likely voters said they believed Trump would be better on the economy and immigration, while Harris would be better on abortion and democracy.

In Pennsylvania, Trump maintains a strong advantage among white voters with no college degree, and voters in the center of the state. Harris leads among nonwhite voters, white voters with a college degree and voters in the greater Philadelphia area and Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh.

In the Pennsylvania Senate race, likely voters showed a strong preference for Democratic Sen. Bob Casey over Republican challenger Dave McCormick, with Casey leading by 14 percentage points.

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