Bob Casey and Dave McCormick battle for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania race that’s too close to call
PHILADELPHIA — Pennsylvania’s nationally watched U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jr. and Republican challenger Dave McCormick was still too close to call as of midmorning on Wednesday, with no sign of a concession speech coming from either campaign.
While Casey held a polling lead for much of the campaign, the race tightened in the final days.
And as ballots were being counted Wednesday morning, McCormick held a slight edge, in line with a red wave across the state that helped former President Donald Trump regain the White House.
The Casey campaign showed no sign of a willingness to concede as the final votes were counted.
“There are more votes that need to be counted in areas like Philadelphia, and it’s important that every legal ballot will be counted,” Casey spokesperson Maddy McDaniel said Wednesday morning. “When that happens we are confident the senator will be reelected.”
Shortly after 11:30 p.m. on Tuesday, Allegheny Republican Committee chairman Sam DeMarco told McCormick supporters gathered in Pittsburgh that he was “very encouraged” by the early results.
“We’re going to make history tonight,” he said.
With more than 95% of votes counted, Casey trailed by just under 50,000 votes as of late morning. But there were still tranches of ballots to be counted in Southeastern Pennsylvania, including as many as 35,000 in Philadelphia.
A McCormick victory would dislodge a three-term incumbent with extraordinary name recognition. Casey’s father was a Pennsylvania governor, and Casey, a mild-mannered centrist, has served in public office in Pennsylvania since 1996. McCormick, a West Point graduate and Gulf War veteran, is a former hedge fund chief executive who benefited from tens of millions in spending from a super PAC funded by finance industry billionaires.
While the race will not determine control of the Senate given that Republicans have picked up seats in West Virginia and Ohio, it could play a major role in determining the strength of the GOP’s expected majority. If Casey and a handful of other Democratic incumbents survive, Republicans will have little margin for defections in the upper chamber over the next two years.
Both campaigns expected a tight race despite Casey starting out with a significant polling lead due to Pennsylvania voters’ greater familiarity with him. Thanks in no small part to a months-long deluge of TV advertising, McCormick’s profile grew, and the contest was widely viewed as a toss-up in the final weeks.
The race saw more than $300 million in spending by the campaigns, their parties, and outside spending groups. The largest outside spender was Keystone Renewal, a pro-McCormick super PAC backed primarily by finance industry billionaires, some of whom knew the Republican from his days at Connecticut-based Bridgewater.
McCormick, who narrowly lost the 2022 GOP Senate primary to Mehmet Oz, this time found a message that resonated with voters anxious about the economy — and eager to back a candidate aligned with former President Donald Trump.
McCormick “has a great background in business,” said Mary Dodgi, 80, a retired teacher who lives in Ross Township in the North Hills of Pittsburgh and who, up until a decade ago, had been a registered Democrat. Now, she said, McCormick and Trump represented the party “for the people.”
Casey loyalists preferred the moderate message of the Scranton native, who served as state auditor general and state treasurer before making national headlines in 2006 by unseating conservative U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum.
Michael Marko, 66, volunteering outside the polls at the Cione Rec Center in Port Richmond on Tuesday, said that in his view, Casey was the “most important candidate on the ballot.”
“Casey will keep Trump at bay,” Marko said.
Casey’s politics have shifted left over the years on issues including abortion and same-sex marriage. But he has retained a populist economic agenda, supporting organized labor, opposing efforts to restrict the natural gas industry, and fighting against free trade agreements, including ones proposed by Democratic presidents.
This year, Casey’s messaging on inflation — he calls it “greedflation” and blames it on profiteering corporations rather than government spending — was embraced by the Vice President Kamala Harris campaign and other Democrats.
Casey is a rank-and-file Democratic senator who preaches the virtues of bipartisan civility, while McCormick is a clean-cut Army man-turned-businessman. And while neither man shied away from attacking the other on the campaign trail, there was little drama in the race, and voters were left with a relatively simple choice between a career politician and a plutocratic newcomer.
Throughout the race, McCormick faced questions about his ties to the commonwealth. This year, it was reported that he repeatedly flew on private jets back to Connecticut, where one of his daughters from a previous marriage still lives.
Those questions deterred some lifelong Republican voters, including Joyce Sanyour, 70, who said her decisions this election cycle were guided by her views on abortion access and her concerns about political incivility. “And I’m not sure where Dave McCormick lives,” she said.
But by Tuesday night, Casey supporters at his election watch party in Scranton appeared deflated.
“As the night progressed, we just started getting sadder and sadder,” said Eunice Gray, 52, before getting into her car for the 40-minute drive home to Stroudsburg. “It feels like 2016 all over again as opposed to 2020.”
Her husband, Curtis Gray, said he was worried for the future of the country if Trump and McCormick prevail.
“This country is divided enough,” he said.
