Israel wants to extend the Gaza ceasefire when it expires this weekend so as many hostages as possible can be freed — while starting to amass troops for a return to war if required.

A 42-day pause in hostilities with Hamas concludes on Sunday, and talks brokered by Qatar and Egypt about a second phase that would end the conflict haven’t got off the ground. A U.S.-backed extension of the initial term remains a viable option, although weeks of brinkmanship between the two sides have pushed the truce to a breaking point.

Israel delayed the freeing of 600 Palestinian prisoners on Saturday to protest the hostage-release ceremonies held by Hamas, which in turn said talks won’t continue until the prisoners are out. Israeli officials say the only way to avoid a return to fighting is the liberation of more hostages.

“Hamas has the option of leaving the Gaza Strip consensually and returning all of the hostages, or else Israel will resume the war at a very, very high intensity,” Culture Minister Miki Zohar, a confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and member of his Likud party, told Channel 12 on Monday. That’s “in regards to humanitarian aid and fuel imports” as well as fighting, he said.

A Hamas official, Mahmoud Mardawi, had previously said via Telegram: “There has been no change in our stance. The enemy must carry out the deal by releasing the 600 Palestinian prisoners.”

Steve Witkoff, the U.S. envoy to the Middle East, is due back in the region on Wednesday and said in recent days his goal is an extension of phase one to prepare the ground for phase two.

In Brussels on Monday, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar told his European counterparts something similar: “We do not rule out an extension of the temporary ceasefire in exchange for the release of more hostages. It will not happen without the release of hostages.”

Opening phase

The opening phase of the truce has seen Hamas free more than two dozen people kidnapped during the October 2023 attacks on Israel that triggered the war — or about a quarter of those remaining — mostly alive but some dead. Israel has in return released hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, withdrawn troops from populated areas and enabled an increase in the flow of humanitarian aid to the devastated territory, where most of the 2 million population are displaced.

The second phase is supposed to lay the ground for a permanent truce, but the goals of Israel and Hamas are so far apart it’s hard to see how they can be reconciled. Israel wants to control security in Gaza while rendering Hamas powerless; Hamas wants to keep its weapons and remove Israeli troops.

A person familiar with Israel’s position, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Netanyahu’s government wants to create buffer zones in the north and east of Gaza and completely dismantle Hamas’s military capabilities during a phase two. The Israel Defense Forces is supposed to leave the border area with Egypt, but isn’t planning to do so at the moment, the person said.

“Hamas cannot be allowed to come back into government,” Witkoff said on CBS’s Face the Nation at the weekend. “And I think the way you square that circle is that Hamas has to go, they’ve got to leave.”

Hamas, which is backed by Iran and dedicated to the destruction of Israel, is considered a terrorist organization by the U.S. and many other governments.

No restraint

Israeli troops and reservists have been sent to the Gaza border in a display of willingness to return to war, with officials warning that if that happens, the military won’t be hampered by previous U.S. guardrails.

Under former President Joe Biden, the U.S. withheld some larger bombs from Israel and issued warnings about violating human rights and killing civilians. No such restraint is expected to be demanded by Donald Trump, and The Washington Post reported on Tuesday that his administration has rescinded a Biden-era regulation ensuring U.S. weapons aren’t used in violation of international humanitarian law.

The 15-month war was, nonetheless, very punishing. Triggered by the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that killed 1,200 people and abducted 250, the Israeli military campaign has killed about 48,000 Palestinians, according to Hamas health officials. Vast portions of Gaza have been reduced to rubble and food, water and health care have been in short supply.

During the ceasefire, hundreds of thousands of Gazans have returned to the north of the territory. Senior Israeli officials believe many Hamas militants are among them. If Israel returns to war, they say, parts of Gaza City that remained relatively intact are likely to be targeted.

That will only add to the contention that Gaza is uninhabitable, an argument made by Trump when he called for residents to be moved to other countries. That plan has met fierce resistance from across the Middle East and Arab countries are working on an alternative that keeps Gazans in place. Israeli officials are nonetheless seeking ways to facilitate their voluntary departures, Bloomberg has reported.

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