Stop messing with your constitution, Mexico
Here’s a crazy stat: Since September, Mexico has reformed its constitution 14 times, changing 70 articles in the country’s charter.
You don’t need to be an expert on Mexican law to know that’s a lot of meddling: In most democracies, amending a constitution is a convoluted process that typically requires ample political consensus, months of tough negotiations and careful legal writing.
But Mexico is undergoing a blitzkrieg of amendments thanks to the congressional supermajority captured by the ruling party Morena and its allies after last year’s general election.
The political group of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his successor Claudia Sheinbaum, which now controls the two-thirds of Congress and state legislatures needed to make changes unilaterally, has embarked on reforms from a judicial system overhaul to a ban on animal abuse. The changes are so many and so rapid — new reforms are moving through the legislative process — that finding an updated version of the nation’s constitution is not easy.
Fiddling with the constitutional framework adds legal uncertainty to a country not exactly known for a robust rule of law. In addition, some of these reforms are driven by capricious political moves that don’t necessarily make sense and introduce long-term risks — does Mexico really need a constitutional ban on vaping?
Take, for example, an amendment introduced last month to forbid foreign interventions in Mexico. I guarantee you that if the U.S. ever tries to invade Mexico again, the American military won’t be deterred by legal platitudes. Yet passing a constitutional reform like this is a symbolic gesture driven by the political need to react to the provocations of President Donald Trump.
But Trump will be gone in a few years, and what’s now a hyperbolic political symbol could be used in the future to target opponents.
“We are in a new political regime where the constitution doesn’t shape or put limits to power anymore,” jurist Ana Laura Magaloni told me. “Everybody is more exposed to arbitrariness.”
These risks are even more evident with the reshuffle of Mexico’s judicial system, which will entail the removal of hundreds of career judges and their replacement with less-experienced officials to be elected into office on June 1. Despite the government’s attempts to sell it as a democratic exercise, this amounts to the executive and legislative powers jointly dismantling a judicial system that, with its vices and shortages, still acted as an independent entity.
You may be tempted to think all this is just a theoretical exercise that pales compared with the many real-life problems looming before Mexico — from Trump’s tariffs threat to a nose-diving economy. Wrong. In fact, the country’s governance problems are its biggest obstacles, from insecurity to a worsening investment climate. Mexico won’t prosper without a significant improvement in its legal framework. Proof of that are the central bank’s monthly polls of private economic experts: When asked about the factors that may deter growth in the next six months, 53% mentioned governance, which includes insecurity, domestic political uncertainties, rule of law shortages, impunity and corruption. (This percentage ranged from 48% to 60% last year.) Trump is not their main concern.
Pushing to revamp the constitution is also a double-edged sword for Sheinbaum. On the one hand, it allows her to consolidate the ambitious reconfiguration of Mexico’s public life around a dominant party envisioned by her mentor López Obrador.
But it also limns the boundaries of her leadership: An attempt to set limits to nepotism in the constitution last month was met with strong resistance within the ruling coalition, thereby reminding everybody that the new president — as respected and popular as she is — doesn’t have the clout of the leader everybody calls AMLO.
Indeed, it’s an interesting moment for Mexico’s first female president: Talk to businesspeople and diplomats in Mexico City and you’ll hear sincere praise for how she’s playing a tough hand, particularly in the relationship with Trump. Her forceful attempts to tackle violence and narcotrafficking are a clear departure from AMLO’s “hugs, not bullets” strategy.
At the same time, contradictions abound: She celebrates announcements of big investments by foreign companies from Netflix Inc. to Home Depot Inc. at her daily news conferences — yet she is still trying to interfere with every aspect of the economy, including capping gasoline prices. She constantly vows to defend Mexico’s sovereignty while also sending dozens of drug kingpins to be tried in the U.S. — an admission of institutional weakness.
This ambivalence may be a tactical element in the difficult balancing act that Sheinbaum needs to pull off right now. But in the longer term, she runs the risk of not satisfying anyone. Mexico is poised to grow just 0.6% this year, flirting with a recession, and only 1.8% in 2026. Avoiding that grim fate — not constantly messing around with the constitution — should be the government’s priority.
Juan Pablo Spinetto covers Latin American business, economic affairs and politics.