WASHINGTON — With just months to go before Pennsylvania plays what's expected to be a pivotal role in the 2024 election, the state's donors have sent mixed signals to the top two candidates, who are all but assured to face off again in November.

Former President Donald Trump, whose surprise win in Pennsylvania powered his unlikely election eight years ago, has drawn more donations from the state than any other candidate in the field since the 2022 midterm elections. But in the first two months of this year, he was eclipsed by his top two rivals — including one in his own party who's no longer running.

The presumptive Republican nominee has taken in more than $2.6 million from Pennsylvania donors since the last congressional election a year and a half ago, compared to President Joe Biden's $2.3 million. But in January and February of this year, Biden — who recaptured the state for Democrats in 2020 — easily outpaced his GOP opponent, collecting $767,000 to Trump's $456,000, federal campaign finance records show.

Perhaps more worrisome for Trump, his last remaining Republican rival, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, got about $9,000 more than he collected from Pennsylvania donors in the first two months of the year. Haley dropped out of the race in early March, six days after the latest campaign finance reporting period ended, but the significant minority of Republicans who continue to support her — or, at least, oppose Trump — in primaries in key states could make it harder for the former president to recapture the White House, analysts say.

Both Biden and Trump have struggled in recent months to unify crucial blocs of voters who powered their victories in 2020 and 2016, and their campaigns have worked hard to bring those voters back into the fold in what's expected to be another razor-thin election.

With the race expected to turn on a small number of persuadable voters in just a few key swing states — Pennsylvania the largest among them — the election could come down to a group of voters smaller than the crowd “of a large football game,” said Vince Galko, a Republican strategist based in northeastern Pennsylvania.

“You have to focus on independents and find ways to continue to target and get the message to that small portion,” Galko said of campaign spending. “And Republicans have to invest in a functional and adequate mail-in ballot game to make up some ground.”

For Trump, the challenge is magnified by his 88 criminal indictments spread across four trials in three states. Because the former president decided to use his donors' money to pay his legal bills, his campaign is forking over millions of dollars a month to teams of lawyers defending him from charges of fraud, attempting to overturn the 2020 election and mishandling boxes of highly classified government documents that he took with him when he left the White House.

In February alone, one of Trump's PACs, Save America, paid his lawyers almost $5.6 million — more than it took in that month, federal filings show. Those lawyers have received at least $76 million over the last two years as they defend him against four felony indictments and other civil charges, The Associated Press reported this week.

The Republican National Committee has agreed to direct donations to his campaign and Save America before the RNC gets a share, AP reported.

Strategists told the Post-Gazette the unusual agreement could undercut some GOP candidates in tight races, but is unlikely to hurt the campaign of wealthy Republican business owner David McCormick, who seeks to oust three-term Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bob Casey. McCormick has endorsed Trump despite the former president's spurning of him during a 2022 Senate run.

Trump's lagging totals in the commonwealth come as the Biden campaign boasts that it raised more than double the former president nationwide in February, $53 million to $20 million, while holding more than three times as much cash in the bank, $155 million to $42 million.

But Pennsylvania strategists of both major parties say the fundraising battle is hardly a clear indicator of success come Election Day, Nov. 5.

“Money matters in a presidential race but to some extent a lot less than other campaigns,” said J.J. Balaban, a Philadelphia-based Democratic strategist and ad maker. “If (Pennsylvania Democratic Rep.) Summer Lee's opponent has no money behind her, that's really hard because she's not really well known, so it's hard to see a path to victory. In a presidential race, it's a fundamentally different thing. Even if someone gets wildly outspent, a lot of opinions are already made.”

That's especially true given the unique and polarizing nature of Trump, who “doesn't need to match his opponent dollar for dollar,” Galko said.

“When you're the lead story on an almost daily basis, that makes up for the fundraising deficit,” he said.

Several strategists pointed to 2016, when former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign and outside groups combined to raise almost $770 million compared to Trump's $433 million, according to the nonprofit OpenSecrets, which tracks campaign finance and lobbying data.

“Clinton ran circles around (Trump) in terms of campaign contributions and he won anyway,” Balaban said. “That's a cautionary tale. Fundraising may not be particularly decisive or relevant to understanding the campaign.”

In 2020, Biden eclipsed Trump's formidable war chest, raising and spending more than $1 billion, while Trump raised and spent more than $770 million. When including outside money — $580 million for Biden and $313 million for Trump — the pair raised a combined $3.9 billion, according to OpenSecrets.

The totals this year contrast sharply with the first two months of 2020, when a large field of Democratic candidates were locked in a battle for their party's nomination.

At the time, the top fundraiser in Pennsylvania seeking the White House was the de facto leader of a nationwide progressive movement, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent who fell short of Democratic nominations in 2016 and 2020. Sanders raised just shy of $1 million from Pennsylvania donors from Jan. 1 to Feb. 28, 2020, compared to $870,000 for Trump and almost $585,000 for Biden.

This year, both the incumbent and his challenger benefit from a substantial amount of free media, experts said.

Biden, who has visited several battleground states including Pennsylvania to tout his achievements, raised $10 million in the 24 hours after the State of the Union address earlier this month.

And Trump, who continues to make headlines attacking Biden and making vitriolic statements, has sought to turn the spotlight on his court cases over fraud, the handling of classified documents, attempts to overturn the 2020 election and more into a rally cry for supporters and others dissatisfied with the Biden administration.

Trump has pleaded not guilty in several cases and is urging the U.S. Supreme Court to declare former presidents immune from prosecution for acts taken while in office.

“The Democrats are going to outraise Republicans … and may do so in significant numbers,” said Charlie Gerow, a Harrisburg-based GOP strategist. “But I don't think it matters.”

He added, “Every time Democrats try to weaponize the justice system against Trump, it helps him.”

But the former president's fundraising likely won't reach totals seen in prior elections, Galko said.

“Many large donors seemed to have walked away from him since (the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol) and some other unfortunate episodes that are occurring, combined with his ongoing legal issues,” he said. “His small-dollar donors are very loyal to him and continue to be there for him.”

Christopher Nicholas, a Harrisburg-based Republican consultant, said the fundraising totals thus far in Pennsylvania “may be a good indication of how close” the race will be.

An average of recent Pennsylvania polls tracked by Real Clear Politics shows Trump leading Biden by just 0.5%. A late-January poll by Franklin & Marshall College showed the candidates in a virtual dead heat in the state, with Biden getting a boost driven by an increasingly less pessimistic outlook on the economy.

But Gerow said that “Biden can pour tens of millions of dollars into television advertising telling people how great the economy is, but people simply aren't buying it. That's the problem for the Biden campaign. They don't have a message that will work.”

The Biden team pounced on Trump's fundraising totals last week.

“If Donald Trump put up these kinds of numbers on 'The Apprentice,' he'd fire himself,” said Michael Tyler, the Biden campaign communications director. “His extreme, toxic agenda of banning abortion, slashing Social Security, and promoting political violence is repelling donors and doing exactly nothing to earn support from the voters who will decide this election.”

Steven Cheung, communications director for Trump's campaign, said in a statement that “Americans know that they were better off with President Donald Trump four years ago than with Crooked Joe Biden and his disastrous policies.”

Cheung also said the Save America PAC “also covers a very active and robust post-presidency office and other various expenses not related to fighting the illegal witch hunts.” He added that the Trump campaign, RNC and state GOP parties “ultimately receive the overwhelming majority of funds” raised through a new joint fundraising committee called Trump 47.

Recent polls show both candidates have sparked intense dissatisfaction in Pennsylvania and across the country.

More than half of Pennsylvania voters disapprove of Biden's job performance, according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll. In a recent New York Times/Siena College survey, almost half described Trump as dangerous. And almost 20% of voters nationwide are so-called “double haters” who are unhappy with both candidates, according to several polls.

Gerow said Trump and his allies should prioritize spending “on the ground game, because that's the one area where they've lagged behind historically. But he doesn't have to buy television advertising in the amounts Biden has to.”

Larry Ceisler, a Philadelphia-based Democratic consultant, said Democrats have a better fundraising apparatus in Pennsylvania, and that “having the governor and both senators in their column is always helpful.”

And Democrats have another advantage, he said.

“Democrats and their givers, though they may have questions about Biden, are united in the imperative for his reelection,” he said. "(The) GOP is not.”