As the nation braces for one of the tightest presidential elections in recent memory, pollsters scramble to grasp the pulse of the nation’s voters — a pulse that seems to shift with each passing day.

In many ways, Butler County’s political landscape is also evolving as municipal populations change and issues on the national front spark local interest. Data on voter engagement, voter registration and party affiliation speak to some of these changes.

Beyond the data, there’s a deeper story unfolding. Many of the county’s newest or future voters — the youth — are beginning to take their place in the political landscape. This new generation will soon have its first opportunity to make their voices heard at the ballot box, potentially steering the county in new directions.

By and large, Butler County residents are poised to vote on Nov. 5.

About 88.5% of adults in the county were registered as of Sept. 27, according to the Butler County Bureau of Elections and U.S. Census Bureau data — a figure that beats the statewide registration of about 87%.

Republicans dominate Butler County, accounting for about 57% of registered voters, while 28% are registered as Democrats and 15% are with another party or unaffiliated.

In contrast, statewide figures show a different landscape, with about 44% of voters registered as Democrats, 40% as Republicans and 16% with another party or unaffiliated as of Oct. 7.

The changing political winds of recent years have prompted some voters in Butler County to reconsider their party affiliation.

The proportion of Democratic voters in the county fell by more than 4% between 2016 and 2024 while the proportion of Republicans rose by more than 3% over the same period. The proportion of voters registered with other parties — Libertarian, Green and others — rose by 0.8%.

Communities in the southwestern part of the county, such as Cranberry Township, Adams Township and Valencia, have been among the fastest growing in Pennsylvania. Residents are drawn by the area’s many employers, easy commuter access to Pittsburgh and Butler County’s more affordable cost of living. These new residents have changed the landscape of party affiliation.

Cranberry Township is the largest municipality in Butler County. Home of Westinghouse and other sizable employers, it sits in the southwest corner of the county at the junction of Interstate 79 and Route 228. Since 2012, its population has grown about 22% from roughly 28,800 to 35,100 in 2024, according to World Population Review and U.S. Census Bureau data.

Between 2016 and September 2024, the share of Cranberry Township voters registered as Republicans fell by 3.2%, but the party still dominates the township at 51% of registered voters. The number registered as Democrats rose by 1.4% to 32%, while the number of voters registered with other parties or unaffiliated rose by 1.8% to 17%.

Slippery Rock Borough in the northwest region of the county has had a fluctuating population since 2012, between about 3,100 and 3,700, according to World Population Review and U.S. Census Bureau data. Home to Slippery Rock University, it draws residents from across the state and even the nation.

The population results in a lower-than-average share of Republican voters. Still, between 2016 and September 2024, the proportion of borough voters registered as Republicans grew significantly, by 7.2%, to 44%. The number registered as Democrats fell by 1.7% to 39% during that same period, while the number of voters registered with other parties or unaffiliated fell by 5.4% to 17%. Democrats had outnumbered Republicans in the borough for the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Saxonburg, like some communities in the southeast region of the county, has seen gradual but persistent population decreases in the last decade and a half, falling from about 1,500 in 2012 to about 1,300 in 2024, according to World Population Review and U.S. Census Bureau data.

Between 2016 and September 2024, the share of Saxonburg voters registered as Republicans grew by 2.3% to 57%, while the number registered as Democrats fell by 6% to 28%. The number of voters registered with other parties or unaffiliated rose by 3.7% to 14%.

Bruin and Parker Township, like other smaller communities in the northeast region of the county, have experienced a decline in population, with Bruin falling about 23% in population between 2012 and 2024, and Parker Township falling 11% during the same period, according to World Population Review and U.S. Census Bureau data.

The northeastern portion of the county is strongly Republican, and that trend is accelerating. Between 2016 and September 2024, the share of Bruin and Parker Township voters registered as Republicans grew by 9% to 73%, while the number registered as Democrats fell by nearly 11% to 14%. The number of voters registered with other parties or unaffiliated rose by 1.9% to 12%.

Butler in the central part of the county is the county’s largest city with an estimated 12,970 residents. This figure is 3.5% lower than its estimated population of 13,434 in 2012.

Butler’s diverse population may contribute to a smaller proportion of Republican voters — in fact, Democrats outnumbered Republicans as recently as 2016 — but trends in voter registration align with other regions of the county.

Between 2016 and September 2024, the share of Butler voters registered as Republicans grew by 4.6% to 43%, while the number registered as Democrats fell by 7.3% to 36%. The number of voters registered with other parties or unaffiliated rose by 2.8%.

As the southwest corner of the county continues to attract residents from Pittsburgh and the south, it is possible that more Democratic voters will shift the county’s political profile. However, the data shows that the Republican Party continues to dominate — and even grow — in Butler County.

President Joe Biden won Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes in 2020 with 50.01% of the vote compared to 48.84% for incumbent President Donald Trump. In raw numbers, the margin was a slim 80,555 votes, according to the Pennsylvania Department of State.

Notably, Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen received 1.15% of the statewide vote, or 79,380 individual votes — just 1,175 fewer than the margin between the major party candidates. Her votes likely came from both sides of the aisle, however.

With its strong Republican affiliation, Butler County voted 65.63% for Trump and 33.10% for Biden, a difference of 36,851 votes.

Democratic voters in Butler County were more likely than Republicans to vote by mail, matching statewide and national trends. But Democrats in Butler County were slightly more likely than the statewide average to vote in person on election day.

Of his Butler County votes, Biden received 15,955 (43%) on Election Day, 21,061 (56%) by mail and 492 (1%) provisional, or counted after the eligibility of the voter was confirmed.

Trump voters were more likely to vote in person. Trump received 61,880 (83%) on Election Day, 11,501 (15%) by mail and 978 (1%) provisional.

At the state level, 1,409,341 (40%) Biden votes were cast on Election Day, 1,995,720 (58%) were sent by mail and 53,168 (2%) were provisional. Trump received 2,731,230 (80%) on Election Day, 595,570 (18%) by mail and 50,874 (2%) provisional.

Although candidate personalities may have a temporary impact on political opinions, long-term party affiliation and voter decisions are driven by local and national issues and each party’s proposals to address those issues.

In a September 2024 survey of key voter issues, the Pew Research Center found top concerns for Republican voters are the economy (93% of Republicans rank this issue as “very important”), immigration (82%) and violent crime (76%).

Among Democrats, the top issues are health care (76%), Supreme Court appointments (73%) and the economy (68%), according to the study.

When all voters are considered, the study finds the economy to be the top overall issue, with 81% ranking it as very important.

This finding aligns with the concerns of voters across the county, according to Butler County Republican Committee chairman Jim Hulings, of Harmony.

“No matter where we go, the economy is the top issue and a deciding issue,” he said. “But people are also fired up about the border. We want to protect our Butler County communities, which have low levels of crime, low unemployment and a strong heritage.”

Pew notes two significant upward trends since 2020. Among Republicans, the importance of immigration has risen from 61% in 2020 to 82% in 2024, reflecting an increase in the number of migrants crossing the southern U.S. border.

Among Democrats, the importance of abortion has risen from 35% in 2020 to 67% in 2024, reflecting concerns in the wake of the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overrule Roe v. Wade.

Butler County voters are also concerned about that issue, according to Butler County Democratic Committee chairwoman Catherine Lalonde.

“Economy is always the top issue, but this year, women’s reproductive rights are also important in Butler County,” Lalonde said. “This ties in with other family issues such as child care and contraception. They aren’t just women’s issues but a concern for partners and husbands in Butler County.”

Just as data can assess past and current conditions, it can also shed light on future political trends, including here in Butler County.

An October 2024 survey of 65 17- and 18-year-old students at Karns City Area Jr./Sr. High School, representing communities in northeastern Butler County, shows the political attitudes and actions of youth closely align with older generations.

Among these new and future voters, the economy (75%), immigration (63%), abortion (58%) and crime (54%) were the most important issues, followed by health care (34%), racial and ethnic inequality (17%), foreign policy (12%) and climate change (11%) — issues that align almost exactly with the issues of Americans at large, according to the Pew Research Center.

Young people often adopt the values of their families. In fact, 83% of respondents assert that their political beliefs are about the same as their parents, guardians or family, regardless of party affiliation.

But party affiliation data suggests a trend toward independent thinking among the county’s youth, with 69% of respondents registered or intending to register as Republicans, 8% registered or to be registered as Democrats and 23% planning to be independent.

Although 20% of the students say they do not plan to vote when they are eligible, this figure is better than the approximately 27% of Butler County adults who did not vote in 2020 and about 35% who did not vote in 2016, according to county elections bureau and U.S. Census figures.

While 40% of the students report they pay little or no attention to politics and the election, narrative responses show at least some of these students will pay more attention once they are old enough to vote.

But the majority aren’t waiting.

“The politicians can change our very way of life, and I want a choice in it,” one student explained.

“Well, as cheesy as it sounds, every vote matters,” another student wrote. “If I believe in something, I am gonna fight for it. Whether it is to make a change, or to make sure everything stays how (it is), you should fight.”

“Politics and elections are important to me because I value my beliefs and the rights of citizens,” another declared, “and I know that the election can determine how we will live for the rest of my lifetime.”

Parents gave permission for their students to take the survey, according to Karns City Area Jr./Sr. High School principal Michael Stimac.

The survey elicited classroom discussions about politics and the election in upper-level social studies classes, he said, as students prepare to take their place among the county’s newest voters.