The current livable wage for a single adult in Butler County is about $16.24 per hour — compared to the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour — according to an annual review by MIT’s Living Wage Calculator.

And Stephen Herzenberg, economist and executive director for the Keystone Research Center, said the MIT report isn’t alone in its findings for the county, which could see minimum wage increase to $15 an hour by Jan. 1, 2026, if proposed legislation gains approval of the state Senate and Gov. Josh Shapiro.

The bill was passed by the state House of Representatives on June 20 and has since been awaiting a Senate decision.

“There’s nothing mysterious about the MIT methodology; it’s the same as everyone else’s methodology,” Herzenberg said. “Whether it’s the Economic Policy Institute or the Self-Sufficiency Report that gets done periodically by a group called Pathways PA in Pennsylvania, or … United Way did a report at one point called an ALICE Report — they’re all the same.”

All estimated a livable wage to be at least double what it is now.

The Economic Policy Institute’s 2022 Family Budget Calculator estimated a livable wage of $17.53 per hour in the county. Pathways PA’s 2019 report estimated $10.84, while United Way of Pennsylvania’s 2021 ALICE Report recommended $14.74.

The average livable wage between the four reports comes to about $15 per hour.

“I mean, they basically look at the 10 components of a family budget — you need to eat as well as you need transportation; if you’ve got kids, you might need child care; health care; and then there’s different databases which find localized, typically county-level estimates of rent, for example,” Herzenberg said.

MIT’s Living Wage Calculator, the most up-to-date of the four reports, stated its findings reflect the necessary earnings for a single adult working full time to cover basic needs and live self-sufficiently.

“Today, the calculator features geographically specific costs for food, child care, health care, housing, transportation, other basic needs — like clothing, personal care items, and broadband, among others — and taxes at the county, metro and state levels for 12 different family types,” it read.

The national average to meet those costs, according to Herzenberg, is about $15 per hour.

“So, I’m pleased with (MIT’s estimate of) $16.24, since I said it’s roughly $15 and sometimes a little above that,” Herzenberg said. “That’s the reality, and I think that accords with most people’s experience.”

Annually, MIT’s estimated wage amounts to a roughly $34,000 salary — compared to the state minimum at $15,080.

“And, you know, that’s not a lot of money,” Herzenberg said “How many places can you actually get half-decent rent for less than $800? I mean, that’s — ‘boom’ — almost $10,000 a year.”

Finding an estimated livable wage of $16.41 statewide, MIT’s report coincides with recent legislation to increase Pennsylvania’s minimum wage for the first time since 2009 — when federal mandates set it at $7.25 per hour.

While many industries have individually increased wages since the height of the pandemic, Herzenberg called the minimum wage an essential “reference point” for employers.

“So what actually happens is wages are set a lot through social forces, and one of those powerful social forces, or influences on norms, in terms of pay is — lo and behold — the minimum wage,” Herzenberg said. “I think part of what’s happened … the minimum wage over the 14 years since the increase has become ‘too low,’ even from an employer’s point-of-view because it makes it harder to retain and to attract people to fill vacancies.”

Herzenberg said this has become a particular issue along Pennsylvania’s border.

According to a 2023 report by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry, neighboring states have already seen significant increases in the minimum wage, attracting workers across state lines.

“Since the beginning of 2015, all of Pennsylvania’s neighboring states have had higher minimum wage rates than Pennsylvania,” the report states. “The 2022 minimum wage rates of Pennsylvania’s neighboring states ranged from $8.75 to $14.20.”

On June 20, the Pennsylvania House of Representatives successfully passed a bill that would increase the minimum wage increase incrementally to $15 an hour by Jan. 1, 2026.

Paul Weifenbaugh, assistant director of the Tri-County Workforce Investment Board, said many county employers were concerned about the “compression” a statewide increase would cause.

“That’s where maybe you’re at a service industry that’s paying $17 an hour, $18 to start now — what about the person that’s been there for five years, and they’re only making $18.50?” Weifenbaugh said. “The new guy is starting at $18, and you’re at $18.50, you’ve been there for five years.”

With many businesses already increasing wages to attract employees post-pandemic, a mandated increase was cause for anxiety for many employers, according to Weifenbaugh.

“The difference in pay for those long-term employees and the new employees is very minimal, and, you know, how do you offset that now?” he said.

Additionally, Weifenbaugh noted that the timeline of any minimum wage increase would be essential to protecting businesses.

“If you do it overnight, it’s just that there are employers that aren’t going to be able to do it,” he said. “Not that they don’t want to, they just can’t afford it.”

According to the recent bill, the minimum wage would increase from $7.25 to $11 per hour by Jan. 1; $13 per hour by Jan. 1, 2025; and $15 per hour by Jan. 1, 2026. In 2027, the minimum wage would then be indexed to inflation.

While the proposed increase would still need to pass in the Pennsylvania Senate and receive Gov. Shapiro’s stamp of approval, Herzenberg said previous increases have actually promoted productivity and spending in Pennsylvania.

“World War II to the late ’60s, or in this case the early ’70s, was also the fasted period of sustained productivity growth in United States history,” he said. “And some of that was driven by the federal increases of the federal minimum wage.”

According to the state Department of Labor and Industry’s report, the purchasing power of the minimum wage peaked in 1968 — with the then-current rate of $1.60 being equivalent to $13.46 in 2022 dollars.

From 1997, the minimum wage remained unchanged “while prices rose considerably,” so much so that by 2006 its purchasing power was less than any time since the 1950s, the report said.

“In 2009, the last year in which the minimum wage increased, the purchasing power of the minimum wage was $9.89 (in 2022 dollars) and has been steadily declining since then,” the report continued.

In 1938, the original minimum wage level was set at 50% of the national average manufacturing wage, according to the report, eventually shifting to the statewide average wage.

“In 2021, Pennsylvania’s minimum wage was 23% of the average wage, a new all-time low,” the report stated. “If the minimum wage stays at its current level and the average wage grows at its projected 10-year average rate, the minimum wage will continue to drop to 22% of the average Pennsylvania wage by 2023 and to 21% by 2024.”

Herzenberg reiterated that maintaining this ratio of the minimum wage to the average wage throughout the mid to late 1900s helped support the economy as a whole.

“You know, a rising tide did raise all boats, and again, the economy purred away, driven by mass purchasing power, driven in turn by investment by employers to respond to that mass purchasing power,” he said. “And you had a virtuous circle of rising demand and investment, rising consumption, rising investments, rising productivity — which sustains the increase in wages.”

But touching again on the county’s estimated $16.24 livable wage, Herzenberg said the driving motivation for a minimum-wage increase remained a simple one.

“You can’t live on it,” he said. “In the richest country in the world, people who work hard and play by the rules ought to make enough to live on, and if they’re at half or less of a living wage, they don’t make enough to live on.”